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Tesco Market Share Continues Fall While Iceland Sun Waxes
The latest grocery share figures from Kantar Worldpanel for the 12 weeks ending 22 January 2012, show Tesco dropping in market share while Iceland puts in its strongest performance in 10 years.
The grocery market is growing at 4.2% per year which remains below the food inflation rate as shoppers continue to seek value for money.
Edward Garner, director at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: “There were mixed fortunes among the big four supermarkets this month. The completion of the Netto conversion has led to an all-time record performance for Asda, lifting its share from 16.9% a year ago to 17.5% now. Sainsbury’s has also grown its share to 16.7%, consolidating its strongest hold of the market since March 2003.
“In contrast, there is considerable pressure on Tesco, with its growth rate of 2.1% only half the total market average. This has caused its share to fall by 0.6 percentage points.
“Iceland’s 2.1% share is at its highest for 10 years as shoppers continue to manage down their spending. With bids for the chain closing today, these figures are promising for potential buyers and show the importance of a good value-for-money message in today’s grocery market.”
Elsewhere, Aldi and Lidl continue their strong run, both increasing their shares to 3.5% and 2.5% respectively. However, the disappearance of Netto means that the size of the total discount sector is relatively unchanged at 6%.
Grocery inflation stands at 5.7%* for the 12 week period ending 22 January 2012. This is another decrease from the recent peak of 6.2% we reported for November last year and we expect to see further decreases during 2012.
As the most important meal of the day, it’s petit dejeuner not breakfast for Brits, as pastries, such as Brioche and Pain au Chocolat rise in the hearts of the nation - growing at a faster pace than traditional British baked goods, according to Mintel.
Indeed, according to latest research from Mintel, Brioche sales rose a sweet 25% in 2011 - from £31 million in 2010 to a tasty £38 million in 2011. And sales of Pain au Chocolat increased a mouth-watering 14% over the same two years up from £22 million in 2010 to £25 million in 2011.
Today, French pastries are consumed by almost a quarter (23%) of all Brits, which compares to 24% of those who eat more traditional bread and baked goods. While a good old slice of toast remains the nation’s favourite breakfast, eaten by as many as 81% of Brits for breakfast, many of the more traditional bread and baked goods have posted slower growth.
Hot cross buns, for example, have seen modest growth of 7% over the past two years – from £30 million in 2010 to £33 million in 2011. And it appears other baked items are losing their appeal amongst Brits. Indeed, the market for English Muffins has declined by 3% from £25 million in 2010 to £24 million in 2011. The only exception to this trend is the “cream tea favourite” - Scones - valued at £33 million in 2011, rising a positive 19% from £28 million in 2010.
Alex Beckett, Senior Food Analyst at Mintel, said: “French baked goods such as Brioche have recorded impressive value growth, suggesting Brits are developing a stronger taste for sweet bakery goods. The fact that these goods can be eaten at breakfast could suggest that this growth is to the detriment of sliced bread. Bread brands can capitalise on this cosmopolitan trend by introducing a wider variety of sweet baked goods to their portfolios.”
Freshness is the number one priority for the nation’s bread eaters. Despite the tough economic climate, when it comes to choosing a bread product, more than eight in 10 (84%) look for freshness, while price is a priority for 67% of consumers. And as the nation’s waistline expands and obesity levels rise, just 29% consumers prioritise a healthy bread product.
Just as there has been a huge boost in demand for French pastries, Bagels have registered an outstanding performance in the UK morning goods market too - with a spectacular 48% growth in just two years, up from £33 million in 2010 to £49 million in 2011. Overall, sales of speciality bread (including Wraps, Naans, Bagels, Pittas, Baguettes, Chapattis and Paninis) have increased by as much as 8% between 2010 and 2011.
While morning goods have increased their share of the market - thanks in part to the overall market growth of certain sectors such as indulgent breakfast items and Bagels - the total market for bread and morning goods in the UK registered a slow annual growth rate of just 2% between 2010 and 2011, from £2.9 billion in 2010 to £3 billion in 2011. However, bread still holds its status as household essential as it was eaten by 97% of Brits in 2011, with the core segment the wrapped sliced bread - which was worth £1.9 billion in 2011.
“Bread is a quintessential household staple food, eaten by the overwhelming majority of British consumers in the UK last year. However, annual sales partly reflect a slight decline in the share of adults who eat bread daily. Consumers are livening up their food regimes and giving themselves an affordable treat by switching to more diverse types of baked goods. It seems Brits are beginning to show an appreciation of Bagels that New Yorkers would be proud of!” Alex concludes.
Green Shoots In Frozen Food Industry As Economic Storm Starts To Lift
As the UK Frozen Foods industry emerged from the depths of recession in 2011 a fragmented industry appeared from the chaos.
According to new research leading industry analysts Plimsoll, shows the market is polarised between those getting it right and those struggling to recover.
David Pattison, senior analysts and author of the 2012 Plimsoll Analysis explains, “Now that the storm has started to lift we have been able to assess the damage left behind. 117 companies are in perilous state and starting the New Year clinging on for dear life and we have rated them as Danger accordingly. A number of these were doing ok pre-recession but suffered as demand fell. The mistake they made was to not make those painful cuts early enough to protect their business. Hopefully, a pickup in demand will cure their ills in 2012”.
And for the rest? Pattison suggests, “They are many poor companies in the UK Frozen Foods industry. Of the 117 companies we have rated as Danger, 23 have been rated as such for a number of years. A number of other companies have made losses for 3 or more years running. These companies cannot claim to be victims of the market. Their business model just doesn’t work”.
However, the green shoots are now well entrenched with the number of companies rated as Strong up to 215 (compared to 226 last year). Pattison explains, “We rated these companies as Strong in our latest report and I have to congratulate them. In fact, many of them retained a Strong rating throughout the recession. They have managed to be commercially successful without jeopardising their financial stability. While others continue to fail around them, they are in pole position to capitalise in 2012”.
When pressed on what these contrasting fortunes mean for the UK Frozen Foods industry, he offers, “More job losses and consolidations sadly. Even as the market continue to improve there are a lot of companies, large and small, that survived by the skin of their teeth and they have to rebuild their profit margins and efficiencies”.
As for mergers and acquisitions Pattison says, “In all we named 117 companies in our latest analysis that are ripe for takeover or merger with a larger parent. It’s a buyers market in 2012 with many companies still recovering from the recession. Our report has picked some great examples of companies that are currently undervalued because of the recession that would be very attractive to prospective owners. For many struggling companies, a buy out may be the quickest route to get the company back on an even keel – even if it means relinquishing their independence. Inevitably, this will further increase job losses as new owners would quickly look for efficiency gains and to synergise their new acquisition with existing operations”.
The new Plimsoll Industry Analysis – Frozen Foods gives an instant performance rating on the top 500 companies in the market. Each company has been rated as Strong, Good, Mediocre, Caution or Danger according to their latest performance. A graphical and written analysis will tell you which companies are in trouble and who is getting it right.